
Opravdu se dá věřit dlouhodobým předpovědím počasí?
S blížícím se termínem dovolené, rekreanti netrpělivě sledují předpovědi počasí a zajímají se o počasí v jejich destinací. Oblíbené jsou předpovědi, které zveřejňují výhledové předpovědi počasí často i na měsíc dopředu. Objevují se i sezónní předpovědi, například na celé léto. Dá se takovým předpovědím věřit?
Seriózní meteorologové jsou k těmto předpovědím skeptičtí. Vysvětlují, že dlouhodobé předpovědi počasí jsou vypočteny z předpovědních a statistických modelů, které jsou nepřesné. Téměř v 50 procentech případů je realita odlišná.
Oblíbené sezónní předpovědi nic neříkají o tom, jaké počasí bude v konkrétní týden nebo dokonce den. Proto jsou nepoužitelné například pro rekreanty, kteří si plánují týdenní dovolenou. Rovněž informace o průměrných měsíčních teplotách a srážkách můžou být zavádějící. Pokud předpověď říká, že červenec bude teplotně podprůměrný, neznamená to, že musí být celý měsíc zima. To samé platí u srážek.
Poměrně kvalitní předpověď počasí se dá udělat nejvíce na týden dopředu. Jakákoliv předpověď, která přesahuje horizont sedmi dnů, je již nepřesná.
Přesnost předpovědí samozřejmě klesá s délkou předpovědního období. Uvádí se, že přesnost na následující den je kolem 92 %, na tři dny už klesá na 80-85 %, na týden je to už jenom 70 %
.
Pokud se tedy chcete na dovolenou vyhnout zklamání z toho, že počasí nevyšlo přesně podle předpovědi, neplánujte si dovolenou podle senzačních dlouhodobých předpovědí, ale respektujte klimatické podmínky regionu a snažte se dovolenou načasovat do období kdy pravděpodobnost ideálního počasí je největší. Vždy však počítejte taky s možnými výkyvy a buďte připraveni taky na náhradní program.
Na našem webu využíváme meteorologické data, které poskytuje server norského meteorologického institutu http://www.yr.no/. Jejich předpovědi jsou obecně hodnotné jako spolehlivé a dokáží poskytnout předpověď ve stejné kvalitě pro kterékoliv místo kdekoliv na světě. Předpovědi jsou ale maximálně na 10 dní dopředu.
Pro obecní přehled o dovolenkové sezóně v jednotlivých destinacích doporučujeme naši rubriku Koupací sezona. Zde jsou destinace přirazené k měsícům v roce, kdy se obecně doporučuje místa navštívit.
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